Manned and unmanned airplanes will soar over Iraq, collecting high-def and infrared video. Transmissions will be intercepted to glean information and confirm targets. Towns and buildings will be monitored for patterns of activity.
American forces are gathering all the ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) they can in Iraq, as it's absolutely vital in their mission against Islamic State (IS or ISIS). But all this data needs to be analyzed, and no computer can do it (at least not yet). It requires intelligence analysts. And when there is a crisis like the rise of IS in Syria and Iraq, the demand for these operators spikes.
That's when they call in reinforcements.
Starting five years ago, the Air Force Reserve Command established a shadow network of reservists that it can mobilize to staff an intel surge. There are about 3,000 reserve intel analysts today. Many of these have first-hand experience in the current combat zones. "There are veterans who have been involved in the Middle East for 20 years," said Col. Mark Montee, Director of ISR within Air Force Reserve Command. "This gives us some strategic depth [of experience] that we don't want to lose."
Where once there were only two Air Force reserve intelligence squadrons, there are now 11. Over the past five years, the number of Air Force reserve intel personnel has risen from 80 people to 1,100. Today, intel collected worldwide streams into military bases in the United States for processing, where reservists and active duty staff work side-by-side.
These analysts do more than just scrutinize satellite images. The name of this game is "fused analysis"—combining data from multiple sources, usually processed by multiple analysts, into a single intelligence picture. That could mean video from a drone, intercepted radio communications, surveys of tribal political dynamics, and satellite images all rolled into one. "Intel is really a team sport," Montee says.
In Syria and Iraq, the Pentagon seems to be relying on a slow ISR buildup to pick targets for precision strikes. "The low daily strike count could be the result of the Pentagon's applying counterterrorism man-hunting operations over the past decade to the current crisis in Iraq and Syria," Mark Gunzinger and John Stillion of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments wrote in The Wall Street Journal. "These operations generally rely on detailed knowledge of the 'pattern of life' of specific small terrorist cells built up over days or weeks of persistent surveillance."
This approach relies on ISR, and the analysts who process it. Expect some late nights on the intel centers on bases across the country. Who knows? Your neighbor may be one of those engaged in the simmering war against Islamic State.
Joe Pappalardo is a contributing writer at Popular Mechanics and author of the new book, Spaceport Earth: The Reinvention of Spaceflight.
